J.P.摩根-亚太地区-金融业-东盟金融业2020年开始的17次会议纪要-2020.1.9-23页.pdf
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1、Asia Pacific Equity Research09 January 2020ASEAN Financials17 meeting notes to start 2020Asia-ex BanksHarsh Wardhan Modi AC(65) 6882-Bloomberg JPMA MODI J.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private Limited/ J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) LimitedAnurag Rajat, CFA(65) 6882 J.P. Morgan Securities Si
2、ngapore Private Limited/ J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) LimitedDaniel Andrew Tan, CFA(63-2) 8554-J.P. Morgan Securities Philippines, Inc.Gaurav Khandelwal(91-22) 6157 J.P. Morgan India Private LimitedJidapa Chirawattanakarn(66-2) 684-JPMorgan Securities (Thailand) LimitedVanice Siew(60-3) 271
3、8-JPMorgan Securities (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd. (18146-X)See page 20 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
4、 have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.We hosted 17 companies over the last two days at JP Morgan ASEANFinancials day. The takeaways were positive for Philippines
5、 and Indonesia, in-line for Singapore and Vietnam and a tad worrisome for Thailand and Malaysia. We recommend staying long SoE banks in Indonesia, select Philippine and Malaysian banks. Singapore banks are our preferred funding sources, while large Thai banks are facing regulatory headwinds to profi
6、tability. Vietnam banks investment thesis is intact.Detailed meeting notes are on p2-18; please let us know where shall we follow-up with conversations, models, data, or any other help. Detailed 2020 outlook here. Philippines macroeconomic conditions and growth prospects appear good. Major risk is f
7、rom higher oil prices, where the second order effect may lead to tighter liquidity. CoF has come off and pricing power is holding. We recommend staying in the sector and prefer BPI, PNB and EW. Thailands economic conditions appear tough, with limited signs of improvement. High loan demand at Sawad,
8、and its ability to command pricing power suggests lack of credit risk at banks. This view was reaffirmed by KBanks 2020 guidance. Thai Banks are navigating a) slow GDP gr; b) fee clamp-down by BoT and c) FRS9 implementation. Any rally should be seen as an opportunity to trim. Vietnam banks investmen
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