瑞信-亚太地区-投资策略-菲律宾2020年市场策略展望对未来增长的信心-2019.12.18-31页.pdf
《瑞信-亚太地区-投资策略-菲律宾2020年市场策略展望对未来增长的信心-2019.12.18-31页.pdf》由会员分享,可在线阅读,更多相关《瑞信-亚太地区-投资策略-菲律宾2020年市场策略展望对未来增长的信心-2019.12.18-31页.pdf(33页珍藏版)》请在启牛文库网上搜索。
1、 Philippines Market Strategy 2020 Outlook:Confidence on the growth ahead Strategy|Strategy Figure 1:Philippines P/E relative to APxJ P/E at eight-year low now Source:Company data,Credit Suisse estimates 12-month target set at 9,200.We set our PSEi 12-month target for 2020 at 9,200,which is 19%above
2、the current levels and implies a 2020E P/E of 17.0 x.We expect EPS to rise by 12.4%next year and anticipate a further improvement in ROEs by 0.5 pp.We believe the index should rerate alongside a continued growth trend driven by:(1)a recovery in household&discretionary spending,(2)increased governmen
3、t expenditures,(3)improved system liquidity and(4)peso trading sideways after improving in 2019.Why are we confident?The lagged effects of low inflation and interest rates will continue to support demand recovery.Real interest rates remain favourable,supporting a strong peso.We expect this to lead t
4、o margin expansion for several companies.We are also positive on the catch-up spending of the government and on the infrastructure rollout as the flagship projects are rationalised.Ultimately,excess system-wide liquidity,combined with infrastructure spending,will serve as catalysts in 2020,rather th
5、an a risk as some perceive.Are fundamentals enough for a re-rating?Market liquidity,which exhibits a correlation with market valuations,has been on a decline for a majority of the last five years.Despite the recent pick up,valuations have decoupled and remain relatively low.We argue that there is ro
6、om for a recoupling.Regulatory risk has also risen in recent weeks,with President Duterte attempting to revoke long-standing government contracts.We note that considerable portions of most conglomerates are not highly exposed to this regulatory risk.We still prefer Banks and Consumer.Our model portf
7、olio is Overweight on banks and consumer.We are Market Weight on conglomerates,with preference for the ones that are exposed to the consumer sector.Our top conviction picks for the market include Metrobank(MBT),Bank of the Philippine Islands(BPI),GT Capital(GTCAP),Megawide(MWIDE)and Robinsons Retail
8、(RRHI).0.91.01.11.21.31.41.51.61.7Nov 2010Nov 2011Nov 2012Nov 2013Nov 2014Nov 2015Nov 2016Nov 2017Nov 2018Nov 2019PCOMP P/E relative to MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan P/EPCOMP P/E relative to APxJ P/E now at eight-year low18 December 2019 Equity Research Asia Pacific|Philippines DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT T
- 配套讲稿:
如PPT文件的首页显示word图标,表示该PPT已包含配套word讲稿。双击word图标可打开word文档。
- 特殊限制:
部分文档作品中含有的国旗、国徽等图片,仅作为作品整体效果示例展示,禁止商用。设计者仅对作品中独创性部分享有著作权。
- 关 键 词:
- 亚太地区 投资 策略 菲律宾 2020 市场 展望 未来 增长 信心 2019.12 18 31
链接地址:https://www.wojuba.com/doc/1555087.html