瑞信-亚太地区-投资策略-中国网贷行业前路坎坷-2020.1.22-34页.pdf
《瑞信-亚太地区-投资策略-中国网贷行业前路坎坷-2020.1.22-34页.pdf》由会员分享,可在线阅读,更多相关《瑞信-亚太地区-投资策略-中国网贷行业前路坎坷-2020.1.22-34页.pdf(36页珍藏版)》请在启牛文库网上搜索。
1、 China Online Lending Sector A rough patch ahead Consumer Finance|Sector Review Figure 1:YoY growth in loan origination volume,FY19/20E Source:Company data,Credit Suisse estimates Sector headwinds more severe for high-APR lenders.Heading into 2020,we are turning incrementally cautious,as regulatory-
2、driven disruptions to credit supply are starting to cause liquidity squeezes especially among high APR-cohort borrowers.As the overall risk environment becomes more challenging,many online lenders are sounding increasingly cautious about their loan growth outlook and risk metrics.Adding to this,sele
3、ctive platforms with sizeable P2P exposure are still in the process of transitioning towards institutional funding while adjusting down effective APR.Trial regulation kicks off.As the P2P business model in China probably approaches its grand finale,we expect a shift in regulatory focus towards loan
4、facilitation while trial regulation kicks off for micro-credit licences.Regulatory clarity on bank-Fintech cooperation is also increasing.Meanwhile,we expect continued efforts by online lenders to pursue various financial licences as a hedge to potential regulatory tightening.Cutting volume and earn
5、ings forecast amid higher risks.Among the online lenders under our coverage,we cut volume growth by 5-36%for FY20E.Qudians open platform volume seems the most vulnerable as its institutional partners may be hesitant to grow loan volume amid deteriorating risk metrics.We also expect margin pressure f
6、rom:(1)further downward pressure on APR;(2)higher credit cost;and(3)the negative take-rate impact due to an increasing proportion of loan origination under non-guarantee model.We cut FY20E earnings forecasts by 49%/44%/37%/17%/7%for Qudian/9F/VCredit/FinV/YRD,respectively.OUTPERFORMs.Lexin(top pick)
7、,FinV,VCredit.We believe Lexin is better-positioned among online lending peers to weather the current industry environment thanks to more-diversified funding partners,lower APR,the prospect of a consumer finance licence and innovative products.We downgrade Qudian to NEUTRAL due to a dimmer outlook o
8、n the open platform momentum,while the company continues to deleverage its loan book business.YRD is downgraded to UNDERPERFORM given its relatively lagged progress in sourcing institutional funding vs peers.-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%LexinVCredit9FYRDFinVQudian(openplatform)Qudian(loanbook)FY19EFY20
- 配套讲稿:
如PPT文件的首页显示word图标,表示该PPT已包含配套word讲稿。双击word图标可打开word文档。
- 特殊限制:
部分文档作品中含有的国旗、国徽等图片,仅作为作品整体效果示例展示,禁止商用。设计者仅对作品中独创性部分享有著作权。
- 关 键 词:
- 亚太地区 投资 策略 中国 行业 前路 坎坷 2020.1 22 34