摩根士丹利-全球-可持续产业-COVID-19减碳延迟但并不是取消-2020.3.31-40页.pdf
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1、Jessica.AVictoria.IJonny.WLucy.BMark.SAllison.BMORGAN STANLEY&CO.INTERNATIONAL PLC+Jessica Alsford,CFAEQUITY STRATEGIST+44 20 7425-8985Victoria IrvingEQUITY STRATEGIST+44 20 7425-6651Jonathan WalkerEQUITY STRATEGIST+44 20 7677-0479Lucy BeauvalletRESEARCH ASSOCIATE+44 20 7677-2470MORGAN STANLEY&CO.LL
2、CMark SavinoEQUITY STRATEGIST+1 212 761-8576Allison BinnsEQUITY STRATEGIST+1-212-761-0530SustainabilitySustainability|Global GlobalCOVID-19:DecarbonisationDelays,Not DerailmentThere may be some short-term delays in climate policy.Butdecarbonisation remains an attractive investment theme forthe decad
3、e ahead,with a green recovery likely.Glimmers of green remain during the COVID-19 crisis.COVID-19 is the clearpriority;policymakers and corporates are dealing with the immediate economicimpacts of social distancing.We note though that decarbonisation was always a10-year+trend.Some delays to new poli
4、cy,but reassurance on long-term plans.The EU GreenDeals Farm to Fork strategy has already been delayed,and we see some risk thatCORSIA could be pushed back due to pressures facing the airline industry.Butthe EU Council has argued for a green recovery,and China has indicated thatrecovery plans could
5、include green infrastructure.Green policy in the US remainsuncertain;but President Trump reportedly has mentioned the idea ofinfrastructure in a Phase 4 relief bill.Autos regulation is already changing behaviour.Over 80%of EU and NAproduction is now shut down,but the costs of meeting 2020 EU legisla
6、tion havelargely been borne,and we dont expect 2025 and 2030 limits to be removed.Balance sheets remain strong enough to finance the EV rollout,while sharp cutsto 2020 capex could result in the cancellation of ICE rather than BEV projects.Economics drive Renewables.Renewable economics remain competi
7、tive in mostmajor markets,driving higher renewable energy mix over the next decade.Shortterm,there may be some project delays,but the impact of lower power demandon the sector should be manageable and not materially impact capex plans.Biofuel demand remains;margins likely to fall.Customer demand for
8、 biofuelshas remained strong.But,prices have fallen and costs have increased due tolower feedstock availability during the current crisis.Regulation and corporatecommitments to reduce emissions will drive long-term growth;sustainableaviation fuel may be tempered by the challenges facing airlines.Oil
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