J.P.摩根-美股-交通运输与物流业-行业会议总结与常见问题-2020.3.16-22页.pdf
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1、North America Equity Research16 March 2020 Transportation&LogisticsIndustrials Conference Recap,FAQs and Current Views,Key Differences for the Railroads vs.2015Airfreight and Surface TransportationBrian P.Ossenbeck,CFA AC(1-212)622-Bloomberg JPMA OSSENBECK J.P.Morgan Securities LLCKellen J Curry(1-2
2、12)622-J.P.Morgan Securities LLCMatt V Fallon(1-212)622-J.P.Morgan Securities LLCShreshth Mahajan(91-22)6157 J.P.Morgan India Private LimitedSee page 19 for analyst certification and important disclosures,including non-US analyst disclosures.J.P.Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies co
3、vered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment The Industrials Conference provided an opportuni
4、ty to discuss implications of the oil price collapse shortly after the latest price war began,although the market did not wait for the details and followed the 2015 playbook by selling rail stocks.U.S.rail underperformance during the current correction was the top FAQ over the last week,we expect fu
5、rther weakness could be ahead for stocks which materially outperformed the last two years and are not yet approaching trough multiples.However,we find several reasons to be more constructive on the rail stocks in 2020 versus the 2015template including tailwinds from ESG asset allocation and Hours of
6、 Service remaining unchanged in 2020 compared to the material loosening in December 2014.Our top picks continue to have margin self-help we can quantify(NSC,HUBG)or visibility to 1H20 growth(CP)but we would prefer to scale in over time given the current volatility.We are increasingly constructive on
7、 railroads with the operations to offset end market headwinds(CSX)or build on recent momentum(UNP)as well as historical outperformers during market volatility(CHRW).Truckload appears less attractive assuming oil prices stay lower for longer as effective capacity creeps back into the market.Smaller f
8、leets are less fuel efficient than bigger carriers and benefit more from lower diesel prices,while oilfield drivers could look for over-the-road jobs if U.S.oil production begins to decline from current record levels.Conference takeaways:bracing for impact and assessing energy exposure.Companies pre
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