J.P.摩根-港股-银行业-压力测试房地产流动性与增长-2019.10.28-52页.pdf
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1、Asia Pacific Equity Research28 October 2019 HK banksStress tests:property,liquidity,growthAsia FinancialsJemmy S Huang AC(886-2)2725-Bloomberg JPMA JHUANG J.P.Morgan Securities(Taiwan)Limited/J.P.Morgan Securities(Asia Pacific)LimitedKatherine Lei(852)2800-J.P.Morgan Securities(Asia Pacific)LimitedS
2、ee page 46 for analyst certification and important disclosures,including non-US analyst disclosures.J.P.Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the object
3、ivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment The social unrest in Hong Kong SAR shows no signs of moderation and adverse impacts have been translating into worsening economic data such as property prices,retail consumption,business sen
4、timent and employment.Our stress tests on property,liquidity and loan growth for HK banks indicate that HSB and BEAwould likely face greater downside risks on earnings and capital.We stay cautious on HK banks with BOCHK as our selective pick,and we downgrade HSB to UW from Neutral.Our stress tests o
5、n HK banks.1)We adopt the same assumptions as our HK property team by assuming declines of 30%in residential prices,30%in retail rents,and 40%in office rents,which would result in higher credit costs and RWAon mortgages and property related loans as well as MTM losses at investment properties.2)Pote
6、ntial capital outflow and the resultant HKMA intervention would drag NIM via intensifying deposit competition amid volatile HIBOR and declining CASA ratios;we assume a 20%decline in CASA ratios and a 100bps increase in time deposit costs in HKD denominated portfolios albeit the outflow scenario trig
7、gered by changing perception on HK as a relative safe haven might be more gradual and prolonged and represent a structural de-rating on deposit franchises at HK banks.3)History shows that overseas loans,trade finance,wholesale&retail,manufacturing,and financial sectors tend to experience a greater d
8、rop in loan balances during a downturn,based on which our stress tests imply 7-11%YoY loan declines for two consecutive years at individual banks.HSB and BEA to face greater pressure.Our stress tests show potential earnings downside of 24-45%in 2020E and 39-67%in 2021E to result in ROE deduction of
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