J.P.摩根-香港房地产超越黑暗-2020.1.8-94页.pdf
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1、Asia Pacific Equity Research08 January 2020Hong Kong PropertyBeyond the DarknessHong Kong,SingaporeHead of HK Research,Conglomerates and PropertyCusson Leung,CFA AC(852)2800-Bloomberg JPMA LEUNG Jevon Jim AC(852)2800-Bloomberg JPMA JJIM Ryan Li,CFA(852)2800-Karl Chan(852)2800-Avery Chan(852)2800-J.P
2、.Morgan Securities(Asia Pacific)LimitedSee page 91 for analyst certification and important disclosures,including non-US analyst disclosures.J.P.Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict
3、of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.We expect the various property sub-segments to trend down in 2020,but downside in residential prices and office rents is likely more temporar
4、y than for retail.Thanks to significant corrections in developers and office landlords share prices,we are positioning our OW on these two sectors ahead of an expected recovery in sentiment starting from 2Q-3Q2020.However,we believe the downturn in Hong Kong retail is more structural and we maintain
5、 our UW on the two key shopping mall landlords.Moderate correction in residential prices of 10%.Hong Kong SAR home prices are likely to be affected by negative sentiment from a potential rise in the unemployment rate;however,income growth and employment have not been key drivers for residential pric
6、es over the past ten years.The key driver was liquidity,which has seen about a HK$40bn net increase in the last 12 months.We believe a short-term correction of 10%is likely given concerns on the local economy,yet we expect sentiment to improve after 1Q2020 with more substantial primary launches in t
7、he market.Developers are trading at-1.5 to-2S.D.below mean and the moderate downside in prices is more than priced in.We are OW CK Asset,Henderson Land and NWD,while the rest of the developers are rated Neutral.China PMI more important than falling office rents.While we are forecasting Central and n
8、on-core office rents to fall by 15%and 5-10%in 2020,respectively,these are all lagging indicators.Office landlords share prices trade on leasing activities;the leading indicator of change in the intensity of the leasing activities is China PMI,which has started its rebound.We upgrade both Hongkong L
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