瑞信-亚太地区-房地产行业-新加坡房地产2020年展望复苏振兴和重组以推动重新评级-2020.1.7-48页.pdf
《瑞信-亚太地区-房地产行业-新加坡房地产2020年展望复苏振兴和重组以推动重新评级-2020.1.7-48页.pdf》由会员分享,可在线阅读,更多相关《瑞信-亚太地区-房地产行业-新加坡房地产2020年展望复苏振兴和重组以推动重新评级-2020.1.7-48页.pdf(50页珍藏版)》请在启牛文库网上搜索。
1、 Singapore Property Sector Outlook 2020:Recovery,rejuvenation&restructuring to drive re-rating Real Estate|Sector Forecast Figure 1:Expect continued developer outperformance,given healthy resi recovery Source:URA,Refinitiv,Credit Suisse estimates Residential recovery in 2020.We expect steady price i
2、ncreases of 1-3%,supported by still-healthy household income fundamentals and developers pricing discipline.Meanwhile,we expect steady underlying demand and improving residential sentiment to support the broad-based volume recovery,and forecast a 10%YoY increase in 2020 volumes.Rejuvenation&redevelo
3、pment the name of the game.We believe CDL and UOL,with their extensive albeit mature CBD office holdings are likely key beneficiaries of the Governments urban rejuvenation incentive schemes.Outside of the schemes,we expect redevelopments to remain a key focus for developers in 2020 to drive long-ter
4、m value creation.Potential redevelopment projects to look out for include CDLs Millennium&Copthorne portfolio,CapitaLands Science Park assets,and UOLs potential amalgamation and redevelopment of KH KEA and Odeon Towers.Company-specific restructuring continues.Potential catalysts for our OUTPERFORM-r
5、ated stocks include:CDL:unlocking of value from M&C portfolio,recycling of assets into potential REIT.CAPL:through-cycle double-digit ROE(in excess of COE),with a possibility of a special dividend in 2020.UOL:continued progress towards attaining full control of UIC,gaining access to the wealth of re
6、structuring upside within UICs portfolio.Developers outperformance to continue,CDL top pick.Amidst attractive sector valuations at 0.80 x P/B(-0.6 SD below hist.averages),coupled with our view that we are only at the nascent stage of a stable recovery in the Singapore residential market,we believe t
7、here remains significant scope for a further re-rating of the sector,with CDL(OUTPERFORM,TP S$13.40)being our top pick.We also like UOL(OUTPERFORM,TP S$9.80)and CAPL(OUTPERFORM,TP S$4.30),while we have a NEUTRAL rating on FPL.-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%-120%-70%-20%30%80%130%180%4Q003Q012
8、Q021Q034Q033Q042Q051Q064Q063Q072Q081Q094Q093Q102Q111Q124Q123Q132Q141Q154Q153Q162Q171Q184Q183Q192Q20ESecondary Sales 1 yr MA(YoY)FSTREH index(YoY)-RHS7 January 2020 Equity Research Asia Pacific|Singapore DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES,ANALYST CERTIFICATI
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