麦格理-亚太地区-房地产行业-上市房地产行业有充足的时间来处理压力-2020.3.23-26页.pdf
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1、 Please refer to page 24 for important disclosures and analyst certification,or on our website March 2020 Australia EQUITIES Quality has consistent outperformed in recessions/bear markets MGR,GMG,SGP,and GPT screen as Quality REITs Earnings impact from Covid-19 on the large cap REITs Notes:1.We note
2、 our Quality is measured as returns on equity;accrual ratio(essentially cash backed earnings);and financial leverage.Source:Factset,Macquarie Research,March 2020 Analysts Macquarie Securities(Australia)Limited Darren Leung +61 2 8232 8544 Stuart McLean +61 2 8232 2859 Caleb Wheatley +61 2 8237 6699
3、Listed Property Sector Quality time to deal with stress Key points Tactical tilt towards Quality given current market conditions are expected to be impacted by Covid-19 for some time.Retail malls remain under pressure.Financial covenants and debt facility maturities can withstand stressed scenarios
4、from Covid-19 impacts.Key Outperform recommendations:GMG,MGR,CHC,GPT and DXS.We upgrade GPT to OP;and SGP to Neutral.Downgrade LLC to Neutral.Event We have reviewed the potential impact of Covid-19 on earnings of the large cap real estate groups.As an extension of our work released on 6 March 2020(G
5、rowing your defences),we have also stress tested their balance sheets.Impact Shifting investment style to Quality.We have reviewed which investment style consistently performs in recessions/declining markets in the S&P 500.It is no surprise that portfolios tilted towards Quality consistently outperf
6、orm the broader equity market.Quality is measured as returns on equity;accrual ratio(essentially cash backed earnings);and financial leverage.MGR,GMG,SGP,and GPT screen as Quality in the A-REITs.Industrial and office preferredissues in retail accelerated.Industrial and office sectors remain the most
7、 preferred,with underlying tenant covenants that are relatively more resilient in a Covid-19 impacted economy.While office utilisation is low,given working from home arrangements,we expect DXS to reaffirm their FY20 guidance.Retail malls are facing increasing pressure to offer rental abatements for
8、tenants.As a sensitivity,three months of 50%rental abatements for specialties represent 12%and 11%earnings headwind for SCG and VCX,respectively.We note this is before ancillary income,which is typically a variable revenue item as well.Residential markets are likely to face near-term settlement dela
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