J.P.摩根-中国-房地产行业-中国物业管理2019年表现优异并且会持续-2020.3.9-68页.pdf
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1、Asia Pacific Equity Research09 March 2020This report is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China.This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted,sold or redistributed without
2、 the written consent of J.P.Morgan.China Property ManagementOutperformance should continue through FY19 results,and beyondChina,Hong KongChina/Hong Kong PropertyKarl Chan AC(852)2800-Bloomberg JPMA KCHAN Ryan Li,CFA(852)2800-Cusson Leung,CFA(852)2800-Jevon Jim(852)2800-Avery Chan(852)2800-J.P.Morgan
3、 Securities(Asia Pacific)LimitedSee page 65 for analyst certification and important disclosures,including non-US analyst disclosures.J.P.Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of inte
4、rest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Property management companies(PMC)have outperformed the HSCEI by 28%YTD,driven mostly by:1)an increasing perception of defensiveness;2)policy easing
5、;and 3)positive profit alerts.We expect outperformance to continue intoFY19 results,where positive guidance should drive further upgrades.We expect PMCs to deliver 41%Y/Y growth in 19E,with net margins staying at 13-14%.Trading at 31x 12m fwd P/E,the sector is still attractive,in our view,especially
6、 if we benchmark to the 40 x P/E of the education(after-school tutorial)sector,which shares similar traits(e.g.early stage of consolidation).Our top picks areCGS(6098 HK),A-Living(3319 HK)and Languang(2606 HK).Still upside to P/E,benchmarking education:While the 31x P/E does not look cheap,it is sti
7、ll attractive compared to other high-growth sectors given its31%18-22E earnings CAGR.We think a good benchmark is education,which shares similar traits,such as:1)early stage of consolidation;2)strong earnings growth;3)asset-light with net cash;and 4)lower cyclicality(more).Education is trading at 40
8、 x P/E,and we think PMCs could gradually reach that level withlonger track records.Even if the P/E stays the same,strong growth alone shouldstill drive up share prices,in our view.What should be the normalized P/E?Given the non-cyclical nature,we think that,after a high-growth stage,PMCs will eventu
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