HS-中国-汽车零部件行业-中国电动汽车零部件2020年展望乘风破浪-2020.1.16-25页.pdf
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1、 Disclosures&Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix,and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of it.Issuer of report:HSBC Qianhai Securities Limited View HSBC Qianhai Securities at:https:/ Equity Research Report We are optimi
2、stic about component demand in 2020-21e,driven by rising electric vehicle penetration Suppliers with high international exposure likely to outperform given the speed-up of new model launches by overseas OEMs Sanhua(Buy)is our preferred stock HSBC global research team expects global plug-in vehicle s
3、ales penetration to rise from 3%in 2019e to 13%in 2025e.We expect 2020-21e to be milestone years given the opening of new capacities and debuts of new models.Tesla completed the Shanghai gigafactory(250k units capacity)in October 2019 while VW MEBs Shanghai factory(350k units capacity)is scheduled f
4、or production in 4Q20.In addition,new electric vehicle(EV)models are making their debuts one after another.Tesla,Ford and Lexus launched new EV models in 4Q19.New models including ID4(VW China)and Model Y(Tesla)are scheduled to start production in 2020.We therefore see accretive market opportunities
5、 for leading Chinese EV component producers in 2020-21e,especially for those which have penetrated into the supply chains of international OEMs.We raise our 2019-21e earnings estimates for Sanhua(002050 CH,Buy)and Putailai(603659 CH,Hold)to reflect the positive developments of their EV component seg
6、ments.We maintain Buy on Sanhua and Hold on Putailai.We raise Sanhuas TP by 40%to RMB22.60 and Putailais by 43%to RMB80.However,we cut our 2019-21e earnings estimates for Yinghe(300457 CH)by 7-16%to reflect a lacklustre domestic lithium-ion battery(LIB)equipment market,driving our TP down by 25%.In
7、November 2019,the controlling shareholders of Yinghe sold management control of the company to Shanghai Electric.We see more uncertainty to its business outlook post the ownership change;we downgrade Yinghe to Reduce(from Buy)and lower the TP to RMB24.2(from RMB32.1).Sanhua should benefit from new m
8、odel launches by leading international OEMs.Sanhua has 80-90%market share in the key heat management products such as the EV-use electronic expansion valve(EXV)and supplies to almost all key brands in the US and Europe.Sector upside risks:1)Stronger-than-expected EV sales globally,2)market consolida
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