HS-新兴市场-股票策略-盈利和资产负债表强劲20只股票值得考虑-2020.4.9-65页.pdf
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1、 Disclosures&Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix,and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of it.Issuer of report:HSBC Bank plc View HSBC Global Research at:https:/ 2020Institutiona lInvestorsurvey Votingextended clickhere
2、tovoteTHIS CONTENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED TO MAINLAND CHINA We highlight 20 stocks across EM our analysts best ideas based on their bottom-up analysis with a specific focus on earnings and balance sheet strength and consistent with our top-down convictions EM equities have been through a torrid time
3、 as a result of market perceptions relating to the COVID-19 pandemic and the current developed world health policy.In a way it looks like a repeat of developments following the 1929 Crash when adherence to the Gold Standard led to the Great Depression.On this argument just as monetary policy was uns
4、ustainable then,health policy could be perceived as unsustainable today.As long as investors fear this outturn,EM equities are unlikely to find a floor.Is this the most plausible scenario?We dont think so.In our view,its more plausible that virus spread eases or that health policy will be re-configu
5、red to weigh less heavily on economic growth.So after a severe Q2 recession,cyclical conditions should improve in H2.Until there is greater clarity,equities could well continue to behave in a dissonant manner,but in our view the medium-term outlook is constructive.In terms of market strategy,we favo
6、ur a bar-bell strategy among the larger markets,being overweight mainland China,which we think is defensive and some commodity markets(Russia and Brazil)which are higher beta.This document highlights 20 stocks across EM to play the emerging market story that reflect both out top-down and bottom-up v
7、iews;all are Buy-rated.From here,in our view,they ought to hold up reasonably well in the near term,but also provide decent long-term returns.In EM EMEA and EM LatAm we consider Mouwasat(MOUWASAT AB),Nedbank(NED SJ),X5 Retail(FIVE LI),Sberbank(SBER RX),CIB(COMI EY),Lojas Americanas(LAME4 BZ),Lojas R
8、enner(LREN3 BZ),PagSeguro(PAGS US),MercadoLibre(MELI US)and WEG(WEGE3 BZ).In Asia,we discuss Tencent(700 HK),Ping An(2318 HK),SK Hynix(000660 KS),HDFC Bank(HDFCB IN),CRRC(1766 HK),Phoenix Mills(PHNX IN),Yum China(YUMC US),PT Telekom(TLKM IJ),Shimao Property(813 HK),Astra International(ASII IJ).Chang
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