J.P.摩根-美股-银行业-美国大型银行业业绩影响零利率能源爆雷何去何从-2020.3.13-30页.pdf
《J.P.摩根-美股-银行业-美国大型银行业业绩影响零利率能源爆雷何去何从-2020.3.13-30页.pdf》由会员分享,可在线阅读,更多相关《J.P.摩根-美股-银行业-美国大型银行业业绩影响零利率能源爆雷何去何从-2020.3.13-30页.pdf(32页珍藏版)》请在启牛文库网上搜索。
1、North America Equity Research13 March 2020 Large Cap BanksEarnings Impact:Zero Rates,Energy Exposure,Revolver Drawdowns;Where Can We Go From Here?Banks Large-CapVivek Juneja AC(1-212)622-Bloomberg JPMA JUNEJA Jonathan Summitt(1-212)622-Andrew J Dietrich(1-212)622-J.P.Morgan Securities LLCSee page 25
2、 for analyst certification and important disclosures.J.P.Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider
3、this report as only a single factor in making their investment As the market slide continues,the Fed has stepped in with$1.5 tril in repo facilities to counter liquidity concerns and difficulties in the financing markets,with OIS spreads back to 2011 levels,while repo spreads are up only 8bp.High yi
4、eld spreads are now above 2016 highs.Main questions we are getting are implications of zero rates and sharp drop in oil prices.We expect our banks liquidity and capital will hold up fine,but earnings will fall.Banks are seeing deposit inflows,as expected,along with drawdowns of revolvers.Key uncerta
5、inty is whether this virus can be contained soon and growth recovers quickly,or economic disruptions are longer and deeper.We believe bank stocks already price in zero rates and sharply higher credit losses,but banks can temper the impact of these,notably,by cutting expenses.Mortgage banking and tra
6、ding revenues will likely be positive near term,but 2021 impact is unclear.Given the current uncertainty,it is hard to jump into large bank stocks.Banks stocks may fall little further if zero rates are announced as it acknowledges conditions are deteriorating,similar to yesterdays reaction.A key ris
7、k is layoffs,which could trigger arecession.Regulators have told banks to work with borrowers,which should temper credit risk.It is unclear if rates might rise back up from zero.We roughly estimate zero rates could hurt 2021 EPS by 6-19%,and 100%rise in net charge-offs(NCOs)would hurt EPS by 17-39%-
8、with combined impact of 30-50%.Each 2%drop in expenses would benefit EPS by 3-5%.However,stocks are currently down more by 38-46%.Note that this NCO scenario equals about 40%of annualized CCAR 2018 losses,which reflects10%unemployment rate this does not seem likely currently.Valuations are at about
- 配套讲稿:
如PPT文件的首页显示word图标,表示该PPT已包含配套word讲稿。双击word图标可打开word文档。
- 特殊限制:
部分文档作品中含有的国旗、国徽等图片,仅作为作品整体效果示例展示,禁止商用。设计者仅对作品中独创性部分享有著作权。
- 关 键 词:
- 摩根 银行业 美国 大型 业绩 影响 利率 能源 何去何从 2020.3 13 30
链接地址:https://www.wojuba.com/doc/1553836.html