巴克莱-美股-化工行业-美国化工行业投资策略分析-2020.1.16-74页.pdf
《巴克莱-美股-化工行业-美国化工行业投资策略分析-2020.1.16-74页.pdf》由会员分享,可在线阅读,更多相关《巴克莱-美股-化工行业-美国化工行业投资策略分析-2020.1.16-74页.pdf(76页珍藏版)》请在启牛文库网上搜索。
1、Equity Research 16 January 2020 CORE Barclays Capital Inc.and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Inv
2、estors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S)AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 62.Restricted-Internal U.S.Chemicals Initiating Coverage of Five Packaging Names We initiate coverage of five Packaging names
3、with a positive industry view.In a slow-growth,late-cycle macroeconomic backdrop,we like:a)the spaces leverage to less-cyclical end-markets(food&beverage,consumer goods),b)the health of the consumer market today vs.weak global industrial demand impacting the broader Industrial/Materials universe,c)t
4、he industrys ability to outperform in a recessionary scenario,and d)positive secular drivers like sustainability+the growing on-the-go consumer market that are accelerating demand today.The biggest risk to our positive industry call,we believe,is a resurgent industrial economy scenario,in which case
5、 these stocks will likely underperform their more-cyclical peers.Renaissance in US Beverage Can Market:We believe 2018/19 marked the early innings of a resurgent North American aluminum can market,stemming from new product offerings and an evolving US consumer base.With a strong product pipeline lau
6、nching in 2020 and accelerating volume&share shift trends throughout 2019,we see continued momentum over the next few years.For the aluminum can producers,we see the industrys need for new capacity driving an improving price/margin story,and the industrys concentration helping allay fears of overbui
7、lding.This thesis drives our OW rating for CCK,who we think stands to benefit from these favorable market trends,an improving cash return story,and upside optionality from its ongoing strategic review.We initiate on BLL at EW.While we acknowledge that BLL has higher leverage to the improving North A
8、merican market,we think shares current valuation vs.CCK(4x EV/EBITDA;9x P/E premium)makes putting fresh money to work today challenging.On the other side of the coin,we think further restructuring/asset rationalization in the North American glass bottle market is needed.We expect 2020 North American
- 配套讲稿:
如PPT文件的首页显示word图标,表示该PPT已包含配套word讲稿。双击word图标可打开word文档。
- 特殊限制:
部分文档作品中含有的国旗、国徽等图片,仅作为作品整体效果示例展示,禁止商用。设计者仅对作品中独创性部分享有著作权。
- 关 键 词:
- 巴克 化工行业 美国 投资 策略 分析 2020.1 16 74