巴克莱-美股-软件行业-美国软件业2019年Q4业绩指南-2020.1.21-60页.pdf
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1、Equity Research 21 January 2020 CORE Barclays Capital Inc.and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Inv
2、estors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S)AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 53.Restricted-Internal U.S.Software The Q4 Earnings Guide All Signals Point to Strong Q4:We see a favorable earnings season fo
3、r most of our names.Some of the IT spending concerns in Europe eased during the quarter and the US remained solid with digital transformation projects as main drivers.This was also confirmed by our VAR survey,and hence,we expect further upside for the space despite the already healthy start to the y
4、ear(S&P Software Index up 6.6%YTD vs.S&P 500 up 3%).VAR Survey Shows Improvement in Short and Long-Term Outlook:After several quarters of more mixed results,especially when looking at the long-term picture,we note that this survey(see December VAR Survey published today)showed improvements in both c
5、ategories.We see this as an encouraging sign for CY2020 guidance for our names.Once again,Microsoft had strong results,driven by cloud adoption and benefits from end-of-life situations for several enterprise products.Citrix showed mixed VAR data points again.We Like MSFT,DT,DDOG,TLND(all OW),Cautiou
6、s on SWI(UW):Once again,Microsoft will likely be one of the cleanest stories,benefitting from product cycles.Datadog consensus revenue is looking for 7%sequential revenue growth compared to the 23%historical average.Dynatrace shows upside to subscription revenue(mid-30s growth estimate)based on acce
7、lerating ARR growth of mid-40s in recent quarters.Talend is de-risked after the recent revenue announcement and should report better than expected billings.We are less enthusiastic about SolarWinds given the continued risk from EMEA headwinds and limited wiggle room based on sequential revenue growt
8、h estimate of 3.7%,which is in-line with historical average.TDC Requires Attention,Most Conservative Consensus at PAYC and FIVN:Teradata is still structurally challenged,but Q4 guidance was de-risked with the Q3 profit warning and hence,there could be short-term relief.PAYC and FIVN seem to have the
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