德银-全球-投资策略-全球固定收益2020年展望一切归零-2019.12.19-145页.pdf
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1、19 December 2019nWe expect 10Y UST to approach 1.90%and 10Y Bund to approach zero at the end of 2020.This assumes that none of the major geopolitical risks materialise.The risks to this yield forecast are tilted to the downside in the US and upside in Europe.nThe initial conditions of the US economy
2、 as well as its recent behaviour are consistent with a mid-cycle Fed easing rather than a recession.In fact,unless the Fed is forced to tighten its policy because of higher inflation,the odds of an endogenous recession will remain low.Nonetheless,the risks around our base case are asymmetric towards
3、 a rally because(a)the hurdle for Fed hikes are higher than for Fed cuts and(b)geopolitical risks pose more downside than upside risks.nIn Europe,the step-up in core inflation from 1%to 1.25%is the primary driver behind our year end forecast.There are upside risks to our yield forecast if(a)the Euro
4、pean economy grows above potential,(b)the ECB concludes that the side effects of negative rates are too large or(c)fiscal policy is more pro-active than anticipatednIn an adverse scenario,the likely shift in the policy mix will limit the downside to Bund yields.Given the constraint created by the re
5、versal rate/reversal slope,the ECB would be unlikely to reduce the deposit rate and/or increase the pace of government bond purchases aggressively.Instead,it would have to delve deeper into the menu of unconventional policies if fiscal support is not forthcoming.nOur year-end forecast hides a tortuo
6、us path.The US election uncertainty and seasonal effects should put some downside pressure on yields in Q2/Q3 before recovering in Q4 once election uncertainty dissipates.nItaly looks cheap versus the very low levels of market pricing of risk across EGB ASW spreads,however this is partly justified b
7、y recent concerns around the stability of the current coalition government.In the absence of new headlines,we would be tempted to position for a compression if Italy widens another 15-20bp from current levels.nWe have a bullish directional bias on UK rates next year,driven by monetary policy and ong
8、oing Brexit risks.We expect the Bank of England to cut rates in Q1 and the market to price close to an additional cut in the quarters ahead,before front end pricing to dissipates partially into year end premised on an extension of the transition period beyond Dec 2020.Further out the curve,GBP term
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