摩根士丹利-中国-保险行业-中国及香港保险业2020供给侧改革之年-2019.12.4-54页.pdf
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1、Jenny.JGreen.CXiaoyue.QAttractiveMORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+Jenny Jiang,CFAEQUITY ANALYST+852 2848-7152Green CaiRESEARCH ASSOCIATE+852 2848-5686Birlina QiRESEARCH ASSOCIATE+852 3963-4087Hong Kong/China InsuranceAsia PacificIndustryViewHong Kong/China InsuranceHong Kong/China Insurance|Asia Pacific
2、Asia Pacific2020:A Year of Supply-sideReformsMore reforms on product and distribution could take place todeal with changes in regulation,demand and competition.Growth may remain moderate,but should support 10%sharegains plus 3-5%dividend yields.Rerating can still happen forquality names such as AIA,
3、PICC and Ping An.Life-Align products with demand;revamp channel strategy:Despite someconcerns,we believe overall demand for life insurance remains healthy in China,evidenced by still-solid industry first-year premium(FYP)growth(Exhibit 9).Listed insurers lost share to smaller players because of thei
4、r slower response tonew demand trends,and the listed companies highly concentrated products andchannel strategies(high-end critical illness products through agency channel)may need to be more diverse with a wider variety of products across all pricingpoints and more omni-channel offerings in 2020.We
5、 expect more radical supply-side reforms to strengthen the listed players competitive advantage in 2020.In ayear of adjustments,VNB growth may remain moderate at 5-10%,in our view.Regulatory and policy changes can bring upside risks,such as a change inmorbidity tables(often leads to a short-term jum
6、p in sales due to new productlaunches),or favorable tax treatment on pensions if the current pilot programsare expanded nationwide.Downside could come from further opening up ofChinas life business and increasing competition in the high-end market.P&C Will auto reforms finally arrive?2019 has shaped
7、 up to be one of thebest years for Property and Casualty(P&C)with steady top-line growth(+11%in9M19)and significant earnings rebound(+96%).Premium growth and marginexpansion should continue into 2020,supported by favorable policies on non-auto and a tight regulatory oversight in auto.We expect 10-30
8、%underlyingearnings growth even from high bases.As the industry stabilizes,regulator couldresume auto reforms.While detarrification can be a headline risk,the impact maynot be as substantial according to pilot program results.Still prefer quality over turnaround stories:We still favor leaders in eac
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